It’s premiere day and I just had a long discussion about ratings in chat but I wanted to come over to our thread and talk through some of what might happen tonight for 401. First, this is what we’re up against tonight:
NBC: Cowboys vs The Saints Football. (ouch) However, the game starts at 8:30, which could mean that people who want to watch the game will flip over at the half hour mark. Expect a drop at the half hour mark, then.
CBS: Madame Secretary (episode 102). The show’s series premiere only landed a 1.9 on the ratings scale (it skewed REALLY old). This one is probably not going to give us much of a headache; the reviews for the show weren’t stellar.
Fox: The Simpson season premiere (8:00) and the season premiere of Brooklyn 9-9 (8:30). Technically speaking, neither of these shows are direct competition because they are not hour long dramas. However, both will pull numbers away from us. Everyone thank their stars that we aren’t going up against the hour long Simpson/Family Guy crossover….
Every season of ONCE has premiered UP from the previous season finale. However, each season’s increase gradually declines. For example:
Season One Premiere Ratings : 4.0
Season One Finale Ratings: 3.3
Season Two Premiere Ratings: 3.9
Season Two Final Ratings: 2.3
Season Three-A Premiere Ratings: 2.6
Season Three-A Finale Ratings: 1.9
Season Three-B Premiere Ratings: 2.4
Season Three-B Finale Ratings : 2.3
What does this mean for us tonight? All things considered, we will see an increase. I still predict a 2.4-2.6 ratings for tomorrow. The first episode back is usually strong enough that our second episode stays about the same. The third episode is normally when we begin to see a slight decrease and then the ratings decrease slightly until we hit the “floor.”
Guess the Ratings for the Season Premiere of 'Once Upon a Time' (Poll) http://t.co/qWju2sxFOW
— TVbytheNumbers.com (@TVbytheNumbers) September 28, 2014
TVbytheNumbers is having a poll to guess the ratings for tonight for those interested. So far the numbers are split between 2.7-2.9 and 2.4-2.6