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Hello. First time poster here, but I enjoy reading all of your theories.
I’m guessing that the favor will have to do with finding Baelfire. However, the other three choices also seem very plausible.
For the first choice, I am really worried now that magic is back that the dagger will work again, and that of course Regina will get a hold of it by the show’s finale. However, I think that helping get rid of it for good will be something that falls on Rump, himself, perhaps he can sacrifice himself or tricks Regina one last time by having her kill him and taking the power, but having Henry and/or Emma be able to activate some kind of spell so that there’s no more Dark One curse that way Regina will be able to be defeated. Or it will fall to Bae somehow.
For the second option, I would guess then that Bae will turn out to be the ultimate Big Bad, although I really hope not because I do want him to find happiness later on in his life, and Rumpel has to sacrifice himself in order to save Bae. It’s certainly possible that Bae might be written as a Big Bad or the Big Bad because someone had to tell August about the book and the dagger, and right now it doesn’t seem like the Blue Fairy did which only leaves Bae. Plus, it does seem like an outside force was behind bringing Henry to Storybrooke and making sure the book ended up with him. I could see Baelfire being responsible for the latter and still being good or redeemable, but if he was willing to sacrifice a child, especially one that might be his, just for some kind of revenge against his dad or something along those lines, then I guess he could really be evil.
As for the fourth choice, I could also see that, but I wonder if it won’t be more along the lines of Rumpel cashing in his favor if Bae does turn out to be Henry’s father and uses the favor to get Emma to forgive Bae for whatever Bae did to her. Rumpel does seem to do a lot of match-making, so I could him doing that with Emma and Bae as something to try to make up for what he did to Bae before.
Most likely though, I’m guessing it will turn out to be the third option because I think Emma being a bail bondsperson was a bit of wordplay from the writers hinting at Emma being connected to Bael(fire) like Henry’s dad being a fireman story too. I could definitely see Rumpel cashing in his favor, and then Emma getting a shock when she finds out that Henry’s dad and Baelfire are one in the same.