- This topic has 261 replies, 20 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 3 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Time to get this started up again once more. This thread will be used to post ratings news for season four of Once Upon A Time
For those that need a refresher on how this works:
Every Monday we will get the Live numbers which are broken down into two sets of numbers:
1) The number of live viewers (in the millions)
2) The ratings share for the key demographic of 18-49 year olds.
The most important number is the ratings share. It’s how advertisers determine where to give their money. Even if you have really high numbers as far as viewers go, if your ratings share is lower, it’s not going to count for as much.
Then, every Tuesday, we’ll get the Live+Next Day numbers. This can account for DVR’s and people who did not watch live on Sunday night. Typically, this an adjustment UP. These numbers are important for advertisers as well but it’s worth noting that the longer people take to watch the episode the less important it becomes to those who pay the bills. The network (ABC) still cares about it for their own records and press releases.
Then, about a week or so after the original airing we will get the Live+7. Typically, the numbers increase 1 whole point up. Example: if the LIVE ratings share was a 2.4 then on average the Live+7 will be a 3.3-3.4. Again, less important for advertisers, but important for ABC in trying to tell the show.
For those who are curious: this is how ONCE began and ended, ratings wise, for S3
Episode 301, The Heart of the Truest Believer: 8.52 million live viewers/ 2.6 ratings
Episode 321/322, Snow Drifts/There’s No Place Like Home: 6.80 million live viewers/ 2.3 ratings share
Highest episode of S3: The Heart of the Truest Believer (301)
Lowest Episode S3: Bleeding Through (318)
Remember the following:
1) We are guaranteed a full 22 episodes for S4
2) The season premiere ratings will start off high (I’m predicting a 2.4)
3) Ratings typically fall over the course of a season, but the goal is not to have a drastic fall. We will eventually find the “floor” where we even out and stay steady. Last season that was about a 2.2-2.3
4) The ratings absolutely matter this season. Unlike last year where we all figured we’d get a S4 because of syndication, if ONCE continues to drop, and falls below the range of 1.6 or 1.5, then we could be looking at this being the last season OR getting a shorter condensed S5 in order to wrap up the story.
EDITED TO ADD: This year, during the Fall, we are up against the following programing
1) Sunday night Football on NBC
2) Madame Secretary on CBS
3) Animation Domination on Fox
[adrotate group="5"]"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"I would like to add that the Season 3 finale actually matched Season 2’s finale ratings, which is actually not bad. But yes, there will be more riding on the ratings this Season. Especially with all of the Frozen hype, which I’m sure ABC is hoping will draw in more viewers. I think if the ratings are at least not lower than Season 3’s, and if Once still beats its direct competition, a 5th Season is likely to happen. Whether a 5th Season is the last depends on both ratings for this Season and various factors. For example, some of the key actors might want to leave the show to pursue other projects, given that their contracts could be expiring around their 5th year. Pretty sure at least Robert Carlyle’s contract is 5 years.
or example, some of the key actors might want to leave the show to pursue other projects, given that their contracts could be expiring around their 5th year. Pretty sure at least Robert Carlyle’s contract is 5 years.
Bobby’s contract is for 5, yes. That was done right after S1, I think. But the thing worth mentioning with that is that ABC can easily buy Bobby out of his contract, especially if they end up making it all back once the show goes into syndication.
On another note: Madame Secretary on CBS (our new competition) started this past Sunday and didn’t quite bring in the type of numbers CBS was probably hoping for. It shouldn’t give ONCE too much of a headache this season. Football and Fox are still worrisome but no more than they were previously.
"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"I have a question about tv checkins for services like tvtag. Are those actually counted towards the ratings?
On another note: Madame Secretary on CBS (our new competition) started this past Sunday and didn’t quite bring in the type of numbers CBS was probably hoping for. It shouldn’t give ONCE too much of a headache this season. Football and Fox are still worrisome but no more than they were previously.
ABC should be thankful that the Family Guy/Simpsons crossover isn’t airing in the same timeslot as the Season 4 premiere. However, they’ll still have to be concerned in regards to Resurrection airing against that.
I have a question about tv checkins for services like tvtag. Are those actually counted towards the ratings?
Neilsen ratings, I’m not sure. I know that ABC does track those and GetGlue. ABC does their own separate ratings that also combine people watching on ABC’s website and Hulu. The only thing I know Neilsen tracks for sure now is Twitter, though that is a flawed system with some kinks to be worked out.
"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"Neilsen ratings, I’m not sure. I know that ABC does track those and GetGlue. ABC does their own separate ratings that also combine people watching on ABC’s website and Hulu. The only thing I know Neilsen tracks for sure now is Twitter, though that is a flawed system with some kinks to be worked out.
TVTag is actually what GetGlue has become.
Neilsen ratings, I’m not sure. I know that ABC does track those and GetGlue. ABC does their own separate ratings that also combine people watching on ABC’s website and Hulu. The only thing I know Neilsen tracks for sure now is Twitter, though that is a flawed system with some kinks to be worked out.
TVTag is actually what GetGlue has become.
#TheMoreYouKnow
"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"It’s premiere day and I just had a long discussion about ratings in chat but I wanted to come over to our thread and talk through some of what might happen tonight for 401. First, this is what we’re up against tonight:
NBC: Cowboys vs The Saints Football. (ouch) However, the game starts at 8:30, which could mean that people who want to watch the game will flip over at the half hour mark. Expect a drop at the half hour mark, then.
CBS: Madame Secretary (episode 102). The show’s series premiere only landed a 1.9 on the ratings scale (it skewed REALLY old). This one is probably not going to give us much of a headache; the reviews for the show weren’t stellar.
Fox: The Simpson season premiere (8:00) and the season premiere of Brooklyn 9-9 (8:30). Technically speaking, neither of these shows are direct competition because they are not hour long dramas. However, both will pull numbers away from us. Everyone thank their stars that we aren’t going up against the hour long Simpson/Family Guy crossover….
Every season of ONCE has premiered UP from the previous season finale. However, each season’s increase gradually declines. For example:
Season One Premiere Ratings : 4.0
Season One Finale Ratings: 3.3
Season Two Premiere Ratings: 3.9
Season Two Final Ratings: 2.3
Season Three-A Premiere Ratings: 2.6
Season Three-A Finale Ratings: 1.9
Season Three-B Premiere Ratings: 2.4
Season Three-B Finale Ratings : 2.3
What does this mean for us tonight? All things considered, we will see an increase. I still predict a 2.4-2.6 ratings for tomorrow. The first episode back is usually strong enough that our second episode stays about the same. The third episode is normally when we begin to see a slight decrease and then the ratings decrease slightly until we hit the “floor.”
Guess the Ratings for the Season Premiere of 'Once Upon a Time' (Poll) http://t.co/qWju2sxFOW
— TV by the Numbers (@TVbytheNumbers) September 28, 2014
TVbytheNumbers is having a poll to guess the ratings for tonight for those interested. So far the numbers are split between 2.7-2.9 and 2.4-2.6
"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"
The topic ‘OUAT Season 4: Ratings News and Discussion’ is closed to new replies.