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For those who don’t know, Bill Gorman from TVByTheNumbers has left TVByTheNumbers and has launched his own new site as a result of the site being bought. He was also the one who ran the Cancellation Bear Twitter account. He is now going by the TV Grim Reaper moniker, while the Cancellation Bear is no longer run by him. Therefore, TVByTheNumbers’ predictions and his predictions differ. Here are their current ABC predictions:
http://www.tvgrimreaper.com/2015/09/29/abc-predictions-blood-oil-is-likely-to-be-canceled/246/
It’s interesting to note that TVByTheNumbers gave Once 3 smiley faces (tossup), while the Grim Reaper gave Once 4 smiley faces (likely to be renewed).
As for my personal predictions, it’s a bit too early for me to call it, so I’m going with tossup for now. The biggest factor in all of this is how low our floor can be. Looking back on 4B, the ratings actually stayed pretty flat, averaging between a 1.6-1.9. Another example is that Agents of SHIELD Season 2 averaged between a 1.5-1.8 all Season, and it still got renewed. I can very well see this being the last Season, but I want to see how far and how quick we drop. Getting the same rating as the last finale instead of bumping up a fair bit compared to previous premieres isn’t the best sign, though.
[adrotate group="5"]Interesting. I heard there was a big shakeup at TVBytheNumbers.
But Matt’s right that the chance is a tossup and is going to depend on how far we fall, but unlike Matt I’m leaning more toward “cancel”. Here’s a breakdown season to season
S1 difference: .7 drop
S2 difference: 1.6 drop
S3 difference: .3 drop
S4 difference: 1.7 drop
S4 needs to be taken out of the equation because Frozen shot the show up higher than it had been in 2 years. So on average, S1-S3 we drop about .8-.9
The problem is now that if we drop by roughly that much this year we’re down to a 1.0 or .9 and those numbers are definitely cancel worthy. It could be a wee bit higher; in fact I’d say we won’t go lower than a 1.3 but that’s still worrisome and ABC would still cancel the show because it would be too expensive without getting the end reward.
If history is any indication (and it usually is, though, again, history has shown that we normally rise for a season premiere) then we’ll stay steady for a week or two before the drop begins.
Predictions
502: 1.8
503: 1.7/1.6
504: 1.6
505: 1.5-1.6
506: 1.4
507: 1.4-1.5
508/509: 1.6 looks like Ruby is returning for this one, so I’m giving it a bit of a boost
510: 1.5 fall finale, we normally do okay for that
511: 1.7 –100th episode, likely to be super hyped.
"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"It also depends on other shows and how well they do. Those shows are Castle, Nashville and Quantico.
"All your questions are pointless"
It also depends on other shows and how well they do. Those shows are Castle, Nashville and Quantico.
And how well the Sunday shows on the other networks do.
I was wondering if the possible ending of other long running TV shows could save OUAT for another season
For example I know Castle’s been on the rocks for a while and could be seeing its last season also Grey’s Anatomy while having great ratings right now is also uncertain in its renewal because of being a contract year for nearly all of its cast – so if one of these shows ended would that keep OUAT a float for another year so that ABC could focus on a solid smooth ending for the show without having to worry about dealing with another show ending and replacing it
Because that’s another thing replacing TV shows is hard and recreating a fanbase is even harder especially if your doing that twice it could be a blow the channel’s overall standing
I was wondering if the possible ending of other long running TV shows could save OUAT for another season
For example I know Castle’s been on the rocks for a while and could be seeing its last season also Grey’s Anatomy while having great ratings right now is also uncertain in its renewal because of being a contract year for nearly all of its cast – so if one of these shows ended would that keep OUAT a float for another year so that ABC could focus on a solid smooth ending for the show without having to worry about dealing with another show ending and replacing it
Because that’s another thing replacing TV shows is hard and recreating a fanbase is even harder especially if your doing that twice it could be a blow the channel’s overall standing
And the majority of other shows ABC tries to launch on Sundays bomb pretty badly. I honestly wouldn’t mind Once ending this Season IF ABC gives Adam and Eddy the heads up to wrap things up, because the biggest thing I can’t stand is a show ending unresolved. If the network is charitable enough to give Galavant a 2nd Season, despite the first Season’s failing ratings, I would like to think they’d give Once the chance to end properly too.
Castle is more or less dead in the water, from what I gather. I don’t watch, but I do pay attention to what’s going on character/actor/ratings wise. It seems pretty clear that Stana is leaving and that the show is (probably) going to kill her character, thus ending Caskett–a powerful ‘ship in fan culture. (Also pretty sure that’s the Blind Item Ausiello kept teasing all summer). ABC and Nathan Fillion might sign up for one more post-Beckett season, but I doubt it will go beyond that, if it does get that extra season.
Quantico is too soon tell.
Scandal is safe.
Grey’s is safe, even if it a contract season. I think Ellen Pompeo is signed on forever so far as she is concerned and it seems the same for the other big players. Honestly if they can survive one season post-McDreamy, then the show is officially indestructible.
HTGAWM will be renewed, without a doubt.
Shondaland stuff are the big hitters and they are safe.
Losing Castle and OUAT in the same year might be a blow, but I don’t think it’s too big of a blow since our demos (and Castle’s ) aren’t what they used to be. And, the longer you have actors working on a show, the more money they want. So…there’s that to consider.
"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"In the real world we repeat the same scenarios … genocide, war, and political upheaval… lately I am thinking ONCE is more like the real world then I originally thought…. so much for fairy tales.
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‘http://www.adweek.com/news/television/abc-touts-power-vod-while-decrying-its-inability-fully-monetize-it-167249
INTERESTING ARTICLE ABOUT VIEW ON DEMAND …. EFFECT ON RATINGS….#OUAT gets its usual healthy DVR lift, adding 2M viewers (now at 8M) and 0.9 in A18-49 (2.7)
— TVMoJoe (@TVMoJoe) October 2, 2015
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