Season 6: Ratings News and Discussion

[RumplesGirl]

ABC Ratings Chart (Updates Daily): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_fkPmEEAOMuR77Wr1zQP84hO-KYhf9HiDt_bY6Rz7Ao/pubhtml

We’re almost to season 6 which means it’s once again time to put up another ratings thread. The ratings this year are pretty vital. We want to remain steady. With the exception of season premieres, don’t put too much hope of rising. Falling is to be expected but we need to hope and pray for steady if we want a 7th season. We maintained far steadier in S5 which is a good indication of how we will go through S6.

Here’s what we’re up against for S6:

CBS: NCIS: LA (like all CBS shows, this skews older and shouldn’t give us any headache)

NBC: Football (ratings killer, but no more so than usual)

Fox: Animation Domination (not direct competition).

Here are the ratings for each season premiere/final to know where we stand going into S6

Season One Premiere Ratings : 4.0 (“The Pilot”)

Season One Finale Ratings: 3.3 (“A Land Without Magic”)

Season Two Premiere Ratings: 3.9 (“Broken”)

Season Two Final Ratings: 2.3 (“…And Straight On ‘Till Morning”)

Season Three-A Premiere Ratings: 2.6 (“The Heart Of The Truest Believer”)

Season Three-A Finale Ratings: 1.9 (“Going Home”)

Season Three-B Premiere Ratings: 2.4 (“New York City Serenade”)

Season Three-B Finale Ratings : 2.3 (“Snow Drifts”/”There’s No Place Like Home”)

Season Four-A Premiere Ratings: 3.5 (“A Tale Of Two Sisters”)

Season Four-A Finale Ratings: 1.7 (“Heroes and Villains”)

Season Four-B Premiere Ratings: 2.2 (“Darkness On The Edge Of Town”)

Season Four-B Finale Ratings: 1.8 (“Operation Mongoose Part 1 and Part 2”)

Season Five-A Premiere Ratings: 1.8 (“The Dark Swan”)

Season Five-A Finale Ratings: 1.3 (“Swan Song”)

Season Five-B Premiere Ratings: 1.3 (“Souls of the Departed”)

Season Five-B Finale Ratings 1.2 (“Only You/ An Untold Story”)

As usual, Matt or myself (or someone else if he or I are occupied) will post the ratings Monday, midmorning (EST) and then usually have a conversation about them following the ratings.

I would predict a rise for the premiere (1.5) and then holding steady until we find our seasonal floor–possibly going fractional (below a 1.0). There’s a lot to discuss this year with contracts, ABC’s new President, and news shows that may or may not signal OUAT’s ending.

[RumplesGirl]

Anyone wanna make a prediction for 601?

RG’s guess: 1.4-1.5 in the demo, though S5 was the first time (both A and B) didn’t rise in their premiere. Hmmm. Still S5 ended on a high note and the EQ/Regina is still one of the biggest draws and a lot of the new season seems to promise lots of Regina hi-jinks. Yeah, I say we rise.

"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"

[kranen]

601 – 1.3

622 (or 623 if we get another episode ordered like the past 2 seasons): 0.7

[sciencevsmagic]

I predict a 1.2 for the premiere, then a drop to 0.9 by 607 which will remain steady for the remainder of the season. If S6 is the final season then a 1.4 for the finale.

[RumplesGirl]

601 – 1.3 622 (or 623 if we get another episode ordered like the past 2 seasons): 0.7

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You think we’ll go that low? Even WL didn’t hit below a .8, I believe.

I do think fractional is fairly possible, and likely to happen in the middle of the season, but I’m not sure it’ll go below a .9

"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"

[kranen]

Each season (with the exception of Season 3) seems to have significant drops from how the ratings started with the premieres and finished with the finales.

Season 1 – Drop of 0.7.

Season 2 – Drop of 1.6.

Season 3 – Drop of 0.3.

Season 4 – Drop of 1.7.

Season 5 – Drop of 0.6

Unfortunately I do believe that we’ll end up at a 0.8 or 0.7. I’m almost positive that this is the end.

[kranen]

Also we need to remember that there isn’t a split-season this year which as I understand it will be like Seasons 1 & 2 and air throughout the entire year taking random 2-3 week breaks every couple of weeks to the point of confusion when people don’t know when new episodes air. Look at what that did to the season 2 ratings by the end.

[RumplesGirl]

Also we need to remember that there isn’t a split-season this year which as I understand it will be like Seasons 1 & 2 and air throughout the entire year taking random 2-3 week breaks every couple of weeks to the point of confusion when people don’t know when new episodes air. Look at what that did to the season 2 ratings by the end.

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Agreed on that front. It’s a bit of a lose-lose for OUAT. Split seasons didn’t have stellar writing so we lost ratings. Non split seasons had tragic scheduling…and we lost ratings.

"He was a lot of things to me" "The only conclusion was love"

[thedarkonedearie]

At this point in the game, give me better writing.  If we lose more in the ratings then they will be forced the end the show and that is a good thing at this point.  Let’s start planning for the end, writers.

[MatthewPaul]

I’m predicting a 1.3 for the premiere. I think we very well could go fractional, but I’d say around a 0.8-0.9 could be the floor. I do think Season 6 has a high chance of being the final Season, but that’s what a lot of us said about Season 5 and even Season 4 (before it premiered, and the Frozen ratings boost caught us off guard).

Another important thing to keep track of isn’t just the competition, but how the rest of ABC’s shows are doing. How OUAT stacks against ABC’s other offerings is what really determines its future. It’s the method that TVByTheNumbers and the TVGrimReaper use, and it’s been largely accurate. For the past few years, OUAT has remained ABC’s highest rated non-Shondaland show, and ranks in the top 10 ABC scripted shows overall. Even Shonda’s shows have seen significant ratings drops. I would say the main thing sustaining the network are their top comedies like Modern Family, The Goldbergs, The Middle, and black-ish.

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